I recently found this website, with information on NSF funding rates and time-in-review:
http://dellweb.bfa.nsf.gov/awdfr3/default.asp
You can see the effect of ARRA in 2009 spiking the number of awards. But ignoring that, focusing on 2011--
|
NSF |
2011 |
51,551 |
11,185 |
22% |
5.59 |
2.60 |
$106,523 |
The biggest question I wondered was - is it worthwhile? What would be a "reasonable" funding rate? Should we be worried about our scientific workforce wasting their time writing proposals that don't stand a chance of funding?
Maybe as a first pass, the thing to consider is how much $ goes into writing grants and how much $ gets awarded. If those numbers are the same, then the grant funding just pays for the time already spent. Kind of a bum deal - but as a first pass, what would that be?
Let's say that each grant takes two "full" weeks of a university employee's time (80 hours - I think this is a bit high on the one hand, but not-too-crazy estimate - 80 manhours, so to speak - when you include the budget office, IRB, etc., it may even be conservative). Let's say each faculty earns $60k (well,
this faculty earns that. This, I reckon, is the very low end of reasonable estimates). So that two weeks (9-month salary) is worth $3000. A 22% chance of funding means that a zero-sum game (you're likely to recoup only the expenses incurred in writing the grant) is for a grant worth $12k median size... though with overhead, it's actually more like
$24k. That would cover the cost of time it took to apply (not to do any actual work).
I also imagine that the funding rates include a lot of little awards - supplements, conferences, and people who are "tapped" to submit a proposal (I know of such people...). So let's instead consider a recent TUES funding rate:
| Type 1 |
2011 |
1,059 |
165 |
16% |
6.57 |
2.36 |
$84,999 |
Here the lower funding rate means a
$33k median total grant would mean that the $ awarded just covers the time involved in
writing the grants - not carrying them out. This is 16.5% of the total amount awarded.
I don't know what all of this means. I guess it's not as egregious as I'd feared. I wonder what this rate is in other arenas? - Like when Boeing makes a bid for a fighter plane contract, do they sink in $165M of employee time in hopes of winning a $1B award? Probably not...
One other bit of data that seems troubling - from the NSF overall:
|
NSF |
2011 |
51,551 |
11,185 |
22% |
5.59 |
2.60 |
$106,523 |
|
2010 |
55,558 |
13,014 |
23% |
5.58 |
2.67 |
$105,623 |
|
2009 |
45,215 |
14,642 |
32% |
6.02 |
3.08 |
$96,737 |
|
2008 |
43,907 |
11,024 |
25% |
5.65 |
3.16 |
$80,775 |
|
2007 |
44,104 |
11,352 |
26% |
5.57 |
3.25 |
$79,956 |
|
2006 |
42,049 |
10,317 |
25% |
5.52 |
3.27 |
$75,448 |
|
2005 |
41,597 |
9,757 |
23% |
5.52 |
3.33 |
$73,002 |
|
2004 |
43,488 |
10,254 |
24% |
5.43 |
3.32 |
$72,649 |
|
2003 |
39,745 |
10,721 |
27% |
5.31 |
3.28 |
$75,000 |
|
2002 |
34,811 |
10,230 |
29% |
5.65 |
3.32 |
$62,607 |
We've gone from 35000 proposals to 52000 proposals. And 10,000 awards to 11,000. (Now the workforce hasn't jumped that much - it must be more pressure from tenure committees?)
And then for EHR in that time frame:
| |
2011 |
4,660 |
807 |
17% |
6.16 |
3.16 |
$149,625 |
|
2010 |
5,056 |
931 |
18% |
5.72 |
3.34 |
$152,080 |
|
2009 |
3,702 |
1,011 |
27% |
5.82 |
3.68 |
$151,447 |
|
2008 |
3,357 |
974 |
29% |
5.62 |
3.70 |
$125,000 |
|
2007 |
3,760 |
772 |
21% |
5.45 |
3.99 |
$108,577 |
|
2006 |
2,964 |
728 |
25% |
5.25 |
4.17 |
$121,812 |
|
2005 |
3,554 |
707 |
20% |
5.32 |
4.15 |
$85,944 |
|
2004 |
4,303 |
805 |
19% |
5.01 |
3.92 |
$93,935 |
|
2003 |
3,781 |
825 |
22% |
4.82 |
4.04 |
$98,096 |
|
2002 |
3,651 |
899 |
25% |
5.14 |
3.69 |
$76,250 |
The EHR funding rate was 25% in 2002 and is at 17% in 2011 - there were 1000 more applicants in 2011 (than in 2002), and 92 *fewer* awards... though the award size did double.
Why are we simultaneously trying to recruit people into science and discipline-based education while we cut funding for science? It makes no sense. Who will employ them? with what funds? With states also ALSO cutting their funding of universities, who is paying for science? How can the young scientists stand a chance?
Seems to me that applying for the Chico job in 2007 was a very lucky thing; people were still hiring and NSF was about to have funding rates that would help junior faculty (though - let's be clear - they're not that much above 2002's rates). I was awarded the first grant I wrote (inquiry) - it got me tenure (early) - and has laid a solid foundation for two more (recently funded or about-to-be-funded) NSF grants.